StrategicCulture
The wrangling between Turkey and Russia over a downed Russian
warplane has spilled over into Iraq, as Baghdad asked Turkey to withdraw
its troops sent into Mosul over the weekend over perceived pressure
from Moscow. The Iraqi central government on Sunday gave Turkish troops
48 hours to leave, calling the reinforcements to a military camp in the
town of Bashiqa near Mosul in northern Iraq a violation of Iraq's
sovereignty. As a matter of fact, the camp has been used by Turkish
troops to train Kurdish and local Arab forces to fight against the
Islamic State (IS) militant group since 2014. Turkish analysts who spoke
to Xinhua described Ankara's latest deployment to the region, in which a
training battalion equipped with armored vehicles was dispatched, as a
step within the framework of an agreement signed with Iraq's Kurdish
autonomous region. The analysts even advised the central government in
Baghdad to perceive the latest move, which brought the number of
Turkey's special forces in the camp to 600, as part of the
counter-terrorism efforts. Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi of Iraq,
however, on Monday gave the Turkish troops 48 hours to leave,
threatening to use all available options, including going to the UN
Security Council, if Ankara refuses to comply. Iraqi President Fuad
Masum called the act "a violation of international norms, laws and
Iraq's national sovereignty" and one contributing to increased tensions
in the region. Hakim al-Zamili, head of Iraqi parliament's security and
defense committee, even called for airstrikes against the Turkish troops
in case they remain near Mosul, Iraq's second largest city under IS
control since June 2014. Turkey's act has sparked a strong reaction from
Iran and Syria as well, with Iran warning of chaos and regional
security to be threatened. In the view of Serdar Erdurmaz, a military
analyst, Russian pressure was playing an important role in what he
called the "bitter words" coming from Baghdad. "After the downing of
Russia's jet on Nov. 24 by Turkey, Moscow started to apply an immense
pressure over Turkey in every occasion, and this one is the latest
example of it," he said. Moscow has slapped punitive measures against
Ankara over its refusal to apologize over the downing incident, with
bilateral ties strained further by an escalating war of words. Turkey
currently has around 3,000 soldiers based in northern Iraq, including
Erbil, Zakho, Dohuk, Amediye and Suleymaniah. "Ankara up to now has
realized its military deployment to the region without any constrains,"
Erdurmaz remarked. "But what has happened suddenly?" According to Metin
Gurcan, a security analyst, Turkey is aiming to establish a balance in
the region against the Shiite alliance that includes Iran, Russia and
Iraq by means of supporting Sunni Arabs and the Kurdish administration
in Iraq. "That could be one reason behind Turkey's military deployment
to the region," he said, noting that Turkey with 3,000 special forces
deployed in northern Iraq becomes the third biggest power in the region
after the United States and Iran. "Turkey has sent a commando battalion
to Iraq, which means 400 commandos and around 100 military tank
personnel," he continued. "That makes 600 soldiers in Bashiqa camp
alone." In his view, this number of deployment seemed to be an
"reinforcement" rather than a "routine rotation" as had been announced
by Turkey. "Turkey very apparently seeks to transform its temporary
training camp into a permanent base," he remarked. The analyst also
argued that Ankara intends to show its presence in Iraq and wants to be
one of the main actors who are going to shape the future of the region
when the IS is not the focus any more. "After downing Russian jet,
Ankara has been excluded from the game in Syria and became isolated," he
said. "Now it aims to make up this isolation with a presence in Iraq."
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