Pinkerton Global Risk Group
BACKGROUND
Reuters
On July 15, 2016, reports began to appear that a faction of the Turkish military was attempting to carry out a coup, taking government infrastructure in Istanbul and Ankara. Istanbul’s Bosphorus Bridge and Fatih Sultan Mehmet Bridge were closed, helicopters were seen overhead in Istanbul, and military jets and helicopters were seen in Ankara. A short time later, Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim announced that an attempted coup was currently under way, and called for calm amid the uncertainty. The Turkish military then released a statement via email, and reported on Turkish TV channels that the Turkish military has taken power to protect democratic order.
A number of actions have been taken by the coup participants to consolidate power. According to the state-run Anadolu Agency, hostages were taken at Turkish military headquarters, including the Turkish chief of military staff. Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, and other social media were restricted according to internet monitoring groups. Airports in Ankara and Istanbul were shut-down. Troops and transport carriers were seen throughout the streets of Ankara and Istanbul, and troops reportedly entered buildings associated with the Turkish state broadcaster, TRT, in Ankara, and the AK Party in Istanbul.
It was only after these actions were taken that, on orders of those perpetrating the coup, the Turkish state broadcaster announced that a new constitution would be prepared, and that the country would be run by a “peace council”. In the meantime, martial law would be imposed, and curfews enforced throughout the country.
It was not long after, however, that Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan responded via a CNN Turk broadcast that people should take to the streets to protest against what he described as a coup attempt by a minority faction within the military. The Turkish justice minister expanded on the executive narrative of the coup stating that a U.S.-based cleric, Fethullah Gulen, was responsible for the coup attempt.
Following the address, a number of pro-government actions could be witnessed throughout the country. The commander of Turkey’s First Army, part of land forces responsible for Istanbul and other western areas, said those attempting a coup were a small faction and “nothing to worry about.” The commander of Turkish special forces said a group had engaged in treason, would not succeed, and the military did not condone the coup. An NTV broadcaster stated that a Turkish fighter jet shot down a military helicopter used by coup-plotters over Ankara. And, a large number of Erdogan supporters took to the streets in a large display of support for Erdogan.
This culminated in an announcement made at 11:52 p.m. GMT when the Turkish Prime Minister said that the situation was under control, declaring a no-fly zone over Ankara, and blaming supporters of Fethullah Gulen, though the group denied involvement earlier in the night.
ANALYSIS
Coups are all or nothing events. If unsuccessful, perpetrators will likely be shot. Consequently, those committing the coup have an incentive to do anything necessary to ensure success. In the absence of a popular response to a coup, as appears to be the case in Turkey, there is also the incentive to use violence as a means to accomplishing their goals. Interestingly at the time of this writing, there has been very little bloodshed in the current coup attempt.
There have also been a number of other curious attributes to the current coup attempt. Turkish jets have been conducting low-level flights in Ankara, but there has been very little evidence that these jets are using ordinance. Soldiers are seemingly not acting as forceful in their support of the coup, particularly in Istanbul. High-ranking members of the military have condemned the coup.
These factors suggest that the coup is being conducted by a faction of the military, the likes of which is not large and consists of few, if any, general officers. It is likely being carried out with people of some rank, close to the rank of colonel, which would allow for the mobilization of large units, but find wanting the command and control needed to conduct a large scale operation, like a coup.
Erdogan has been in power for 13 years, so anyone below the rank of Major is likely an Erdogan partisan. Erdogan's recent arrest of many top-flag officers has removed non-supporters of Erdogen from positions of military power. Consequently, the only soldiers that are likely independent of Erdogen are those at the colonel level, which, evidence suggests, is likely the case.
What does this mean for the coup? It means that it is probably not going to be successful. The severe lack of command and control suggests that it will likely fail to contain all the elements necessary to completely take power. Most notably, it will fail to effectively show the awe-inspiring show of force needed for ordinary citizens to comply with the coup leaders demands.
However, the longer the government takes to display the inadequacy of coup participants, the more dangerous the situation will become as coup participants are likely to become more desperate and violent.
BACKGROUND
Reuters
On July 15, 2016, reports began to appear that a faction of the Turkish military was attempting to carry out a coup, taking government infrastructure in Istanbul and Ankara. Istanbul’s Bosphorus Bridge and Fatih Sultan Mehmet Bridge were closed, helicopters were seen overhead in Istanbul, and military jets and helicopters were seen in Ankara. A short time later, Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim announced that an attempted coup was currently under way, and called for calm amid the uncertainty. The Turkish military then released a statement via email, and reported on Turkish TV channels that the Turkish military has taken power to protect democratic order.
A number of actions have been taken by the coup participants to consolidate power. According to the state-run Anadolu Agency, hostages were taken at Turkish military headquarters, including the Turkish chief of military staff. Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, and other social media were restricted according to internet monitoring groups. Airports in Ankara and Istanbul were shut-down. Troops and transport carriers were seen throughout the streets of Ankara and Istanbul, and troops reportedly entered buildings associated with the Turkish state broadcaster, TRT, in Ankara, and the AK Party in Istanbul.
It was only after these actions were taken that, on orders of those perpetrating the coup, the Turkish state broadcaster announced that a new constitution would be prepared, and that the country would be run by a “peace council”. In the meantime, martial law would be imposed, and curfews enforced throughout the country.
It was not long after, however, that Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan responded via a CNN Turk broadcast that people should take to the streets to protest against what he described as a coup attempt by a minority faction within the military. The Turkish justice minister expanded on the executive narrative of the coup stating that a U.S.-based cleric, Fethullah Gulen, was responsible for the coup attempt.
Following the address, a number of pro-government actions could be witnessed throughout the country. The commander of Turkey’s First Army, part of land forces responsible for Istanbul and other western areas, said those attempting a coup were a small faction and “nothing to worry about.” The commander of Turkish special forces said a group had engaged in treason, would not succeed, and the military did not condone the coup. An NTV broadcaster stated that a Turkish fighter jet shot down a military helicopter used by coup-plotters over Ankara. And, a large number of Erdogan supporters took to the streets in a large display of support for Erdogan.
This culminated in an announcement made at 11:52 p.m. GMT when the Turkish Prime Minister said that the situation was under control, declaring a no-fly zone over Ankara, and blaming supporters of Fethullah Gulen, though the group denied involvement earlier in the night.
ANALYSIS
Coups are all or nothing events. If unsuccessful, perpetrators will likely be shot. Consequently, those committing the coup have an incentive to do anything necessary to ensure success. In the absence of a popular response to a coup, as appears to be the case in Turkey, there is also the incentive to use violence as a means to accomplishing their goals. Interestingly at the time of this writing, there has been very little bloodshed in the current coup attempt.
There have also been a number of other curious attributes to the current coup attempt. Turkish jets have been conducting low-level flights in Ankara, but there has been very little evidence that these jets are using ordinance. Soldiers are seemingly not acting as forceful in their support of the coup, particularly in Istanbul. High-ranking members of the military have condemned the coup.
These factors suggest that the coup is being conducted by a faction of the military, the likes of which is not large and consists of few, if any, general officers. It is likely being carried out with people of some rank, close to the rank of colonel, which would allow for the mobilization of large units, but find wanting the command and control needed to conduct a large scale operation, like a coup.
Erdogan has been in power for 13 years, so anyone below the rank of Major is likely an Erdogan partisan. Erdogan's recent arrest of many top-flag officers has removed non-supporters of Erdogen from positions of military power. Consequently, the only soldiers that are likely independent of Erdogen are those at the colonel level, which, evidence suggests, is likely the case.
What does this mean for the coup? It means that it is probably not going to be successful. The severe lack of command and control suggests that it will likely fail to contain all the elements necessary to completely take power. Most notably, it will fail to effectively show the awe-inspiring show of force needed for ordinary citizens to comply with the coup leaders demands.
However, the longer the government takes to display the inadequacy of coup participants, the more dangerous the situation will become as coup participants are likely to become more desperate and violent.
No comments:
Post a Comment